John Gibson the perfect in for the Edmonton Oilers?
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It was recently announced that Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson would be willing to move his NTC to join the Stanley Cup effort in Edmonton -- but there's a stipulation. According to Elliotte Friedman, John Gibson has no interest in a tandem role and needs assurances that he'll be the undisputed #1 starter.
Despite the stipulation, the idea of bringing in a goalie is a serious possibility.
Recently, Edmonton Oilers insider Jason Gregor sat down with Kevin Woodley where the hockey pundit gave his honest take on Gibson joining the Oilers.
Kevin Woodley breaks down Gibson's role in Edmonton
«He's having a really good year this year. Let's put an emphasis point on that. His numbers, on the season as a whole, are slightly better than anything that's going on with the Oilers right now. Both him and Dostal (the other ANA goalie) are both top 20 in the NHL in adjusted numbers right now.
«And yet the caveat I would have, is that even within the good, there are some things that have plagued him statistically that continue to plague him. One is low slot line play, which is pucks across the middle of the ice below the hash marks. And that's a statistic that for the last number of years, he is very underwater on - like, significantly. It's actually one of his biggest negative assets. And even in a great season, that number remains problematic.
«If I'm the Oilers and I'm considering this - and let's make this clear, this is me just doing some research reacting to some of the reports, not me saying they should go make this move - I kinda wanna know where I rank on low slot line plays. Well, the Oilers have given up 55, which is 12th best in the league, but seventh best is 53. They're in that neighborhood as a top 10 team defensively about giving up low slot line play. So, okay. We're pretty good at defending those.
«Even if that's a weakness of this guy, can we live with it? Well, the Oilers' goalies have given up 18 on 55. If I were to get the math and Gibson's percentage on those plays and plug it into what the Oilers have given up, you're looking at probably 24 goals. And now, of course, you cannot plug a goalie into team X and get an absolute, but this is the best we can do. We can take a look at very specific micro stats, how a goalie fares on them, whether a team gives them up, and then wonder are you getting any more than what you're getting from your current guys on these things? And to get the total, you gotta basically run it across all the stats. But for these one in particular, you're looking at six more goals roughly on the season.
«Not a huge number. Now the other one that he struggled with this year that's a little more just this year is broken plays. And interestingly enough, a lot of broken plays come off low slot line attempts. Funnel pucks through the middle of the ice, down below the hash marks, going to hit a leg, going to escape and create a scramble. Oilers are more middle of the pack. Skinner is plus two and a half (expected). He's given up 20 on 82. Pickard's given up nine on 36. He's minus three expected. But between the two of them, they're performing right around expected on those kinds of shots with 29 goals total.
«Again, maybe Anaheim's defense is worse at boxing out or clearing out or preventing the second chances that result off broken plays. But at the end of the day, when you look at what Gibson has allowed in Anaheim, you'd basically be looking at 13 more goals. So, between those two, you're talking about 19 more goals.
«So, again, it's not just about what a guy's good at, it is which areas are they good or weaker in. And listen, there are other things that Gibson's going to be better at that you're gonna get a net savings compared to what's happening right now with your goaltenders. And I think the point is you have to take a look at all these things and try and figure this out and understand that he's a good goalie now or if he's got things that he's done really well.
«So, again, it's not just about what a guy's good at, it is which areas are they good or weaker in. And listen, there are other things that Gibson's going to be better at that you're gonna get a net savings compared to what's happening right now with your goaltenders. And I think the point is you have to take a look at all these things and try and figure this out and understand that he's a good goalie now or if he's got things that he's done really well.
«You have to dig into the micro stats and figure out, does he fit this team? You talk about rush chances. I didn't pull his rush numbers, but historically, having looked at it in the past, Gibson's a pretty good rush goaltender until you get down to that low slot line. So, if your guys are going to force a pass higher in the zone, Gibby plays with a ton of flow and feel. And he's incredibly athletic, and he's explosive still. And it may not always be pretty, but he makes a lot of those types of saves. So, if you're going to continue to be a bad rush team - and, hey, actually quite quickly, Stu's (Skinner) has improved significantly on rush chances this year compared to years past. Still not a strength, but he's gotten a lot better at it statistically.
«So, again, you need to look at all the areas. You might get a more net positive out of Gibson off the rush, but I would imagine if you're the Oilers, you'd prefer to just clean up the rush defence as the Oilers rank 24th in high-danger chances off the rush. Maybe there is a move, or moves, you can make that help lower rush chances.»
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